Currency Devaluation Impacts on SEMs in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Countries

Abstract

This study examines the impact of currency devaluation on small and medium-sized firms in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries, focusing on industrial growth measured as the annual percentage growth in value-added. A panel dataset is utilized to analyze key macroeconomic indicators, including percentage change in exchange rate, GDP per person employed, inflation rate, exports (current US$), imports (current US$), and foreign direct investment (FDI). The analysis applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Random Effects, Fixed Effects, and Hausman tests to ensure robust estimation and model validation. The findings reveal that the exchange rate has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on industrial growth, suggesting that currency devaluation may not directly impact small and medium-sized firms in the industrial sector. GDP per person employed significantly and positively affects industrial growth, emphasizing the importance of labor productivity. Inflation exhibits a negative but insignificant relationship with industrial growth, indicating minimal impact. Conversely, exports, imports, and FDI demonstrate positive and significant effects, highlighting their critical role in fostering industrial performance. These results underscore the interconnectedness of trade, investment, and productivity in driving industrial growth, providing valuable insights for policymakers in SCO countries to develop strategies that support small and medium-sized firms in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.