Climate Change-Agriculture Nexus in Pakistan: Assessing food security and Trade-offs

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural crops and food security in Pakistan. A composite index of five major agricultural crops was used as a principal component analysis for crop production, and an index of methane emission of carbon dioxide, emission of nitrous, Temperature and Precipitation was created through principal component analysis for climate change. Livestock use index as a proxy for food security. The result indicates that all the variables are indicated at the first difference; therefore, the cointegration estimation technique has been applied to determine the value of the parameters. The study found that climate change has a negative and significant impact on agriculture and food security but has a positive impact on kg/acre. Furthermore, more water availability has a negative impact on livestock and agricultural crops but is insignificant in kg/acre, whereas crop production has a positive and significant impact on climate change and tractors, but water has an insignificant impact. Tractors have a significantly negative impact on kg/acre, vectors, and livestock. Population had a significant positive impact on livestock.