Melting Boundaries: Climate Induced Effects on Inter- Provincial Conflicts in Pakistan

Abstract

This article examines how climate change functions as a “threat multiplier” by intensifying inter-provincial conflicts in Pakistan, particularly in relation to water governance within the Indus Basin system. Drawing on the conceptual frameworks of climate justice, environmental federalism, and hydro-hegemony, the study investigates how climate-induced stressors such as glacial melt, shifting monsoon patterns, droughts, and floods aggravate historical grievances and institutional asymmetries among the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Using a qualitative, comparative case study methodology, this research synthesizes peer-reviewed literature, government data, and international case comparisons (e.g., the Nile Basin and Tigris-Euphrates systems) to situate Pakistan's internal disputes within a global context of climate-induced political tensions. The findings reveal that climate change has magnified inter-provincial mistrust over water distribution, undermined cooperative governance structures such as the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), and exposed the limitations of decentralized environmental policy in the absence of coordinated adaptation mechanisms. The study concludes by arguing for a reimagining of environmental federalism in Pakistan one that prioritizes climate equity, institutional reform, and collaborative resilience across provincial boundaries.