Digital Deterrence and the Militarization of Artificial Intelligence: Sino-US Grey Zone Competition in the South China Sea

Abstract

The United States (US) and China's growing strategic rivalry in the South China Sea has shifted away from traditional military posturing and toward technologically advanced grey zone conflict. This article looks at how the emergence of digital deterrence, and the militarization of artificial intelligence (AI) are changing the dynamics of maritime security in the area. It contends that the South China Sea has become a digitally contested battlefield where strategic influence is used below the level of open warfare due to digitally enabled surveillance systems, self-sufficient maritime platforms, satellite reconnaissance, cyber capability, and intelligent command-and-control infrastructures. To attain information dominance, improve maritime domain awareness, and discourage adversary acts through persistent tracking and predictive analytics, the paper examines how both China and the US use AI-driven Intelligence, surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems. U.S. developments in AI-enabled naval reconnaissance, unmanned defense systems, and related digital security architectures are compared with China's integration of intelligent warfare concepts, AI-powered radar systems, maritime sensor networks, and unmanned surveillance platforms. The article goes on to say that digital deterrence is different from traditional deterrence in that it depends more on data dominance, algorithmic prediction, cyber resilience, and real-time visibility than it does on kinetic reprisal. The paper shows that AI is not just a technological tool but an enabler of strategic growth that is redefining power projection, escalation management, and strategic security in maritime grey zone conflicts through the theoretical lenses of Neorealism, Cross-Domain Deterrence, and Technological Constructivism. The study concludes that although AI-enhanced deterrence may lessen the possibility of direct military conflict, it also raises the dangers of unintentional escalation in the South China Sea, accelerates security issues, and intensifies surveillance competition.